When is COVID over?

The official story coming from the World Health Organization (WHO), the Center for Disease Control (CDC), the Chinese Government, and the Imperial College epidemiological model that was used to justify lock down policies in the United Kingdom and California, is that COVID-19 arrived in the United States in early January 2020, and only isolation, quarantine, and shelter-in-place orders can contain its inevitable spread.

The official, government-sanctioned, COVID-19 narrative is preposterous. COVID came early.

The CDC's own data shows that back in November 2019, US doctors were reporting tens of thousands of Americans per week suffering from a mysterious, flu-like illness that tested negative for seasonal flu.

The figure below compares the number of influenza like illness (ILI) reports filed with the CDC during the flu seasons beginning in 2017, 2018, and 2019, after subtracting the number of reports testing positive for seasonal flu. The data shows that, by the time China released the RNA required to develop a test on 12 Jan, there could have already been over half a million COVID cases in the United States.

Given that the earliest known date of infection was 17 Nov 2019 (in China), it stands to reason that the virus was present somewhere in the Chinese population for at least several weeks before it was detected. That pushes the emergence of COVID in China back to at least Oct 2019.

Thousands of people a day were travelling on flights from Wuhan, China to airports in the United States during the months of October, November, December, and January because travel restrictions did not go into effect until 23 January 2020 -- after the COVID virus was already epidemic in Wuhan and after positive cases were identified outside China.

The official narrative would have us believe that COVID was epidemic in Wuhan for weeks, was confirmed to have escaped Wuhan to other countries (e.g., Thailand), but by some miracle of modern epidemiology, managed to avoid the tens of thousands of travelers who left Wuhan and came to the US during the first three or four months of the outbreak, and that the flu-like cases reported to the CDC in November, December and January were due to some other mysterious, unidentified, flu-like infection that happened to be two to three times more prevalent in 2019 than in previous years.

That story strains credulity to such an extraordinary extent that it looks to us like pure propaganda.

A much simpler explanation is that COVID emerged in China in the early Fall and spread quickly through the population of Wuhan without being detected as novel, because about 80% of contagious individuals experience only mild (or no) symptoms. Moreover, these asymptomatic individuals carried it to places around the world, like Italy, Thailand, South Korea, and the United States, because these are frequent destinations for travelers doing business in or with Wuhan. As a result, by the time COVID was detected in a symptomatic case in the United States, it had already infected millions of people who:

  1. Did not experience symptoms severe enough to warrant medical attention, or

  2. Were not diagnosed because there was no test for COVID until late January 2020, or

  3. Died of complications related to COVID, that were reported as pneumonia or something else.

That means that the "curve" everyone is working so hard to flatten has a much different shape than the official narrative presumes. The figure below shows two curves, one that rises very fast and overwhelms healthcare resources, even if we add beds, add staff, and add ventilators. This curve (at the top of the graph) is the one that Chinese officials want us to believe. Because they concealed the COVID outbreak for months before admitting it was already epidemic in Wuhan, they wanted the world to believe that the growth rate of new infections was much more rapid than it really is, because that's the only way to explain the "sudden" onset of an epidemic.

The second curve near the bottom of the graph is much flatter -- it spaces out the same total number of infections over time. Because it does not have so many cases all at once, the healthcare system does not have to turn away anyone who needs care.

COVID arrived in the US earlier and will peak sooner than current models predict.
COVID behaves more like the bottom curve than the top.

The top curve is labeled "mitigation" because that's what the Imperial College study calculated would happen in the US and United Kingdom with economic lock-down, based on the official Chinese propaganda about the COVID growth curve. The bottom curve, according to the Imperial Colle study, shows how "suppression" (lock-down) will save lives -- by "flattening the curve."

The problem is that once you realize that COVID started earlier than official estimates, then you realize that it'd not growing as fast, the peak will arrive sooner, and that the curve is already flat. That obviates the need for lock-down policies.

It also means that tens of millions of Americans have already been exposed and infected, and they may already have immunity -- like this medical doctor, who recently tested positive for COVID antibodies after experiencing an undiagnosed flu-like illness in January.

His antibodies mean that COVID immunity lasts for at least two months.

The enormous advantage to having immunity is not just protection of his own health, but the realization that he is now acting as barrier, rather than a carrier, of the disease. Immunity can come from infection and recovery, as your body builds the antibodies that prevent reinfection.

If you experienced COVID-like symptoms in November 2019 or after, there's a good chance you were infected, too. If you didn't, you might have been one of the people who was infected, but never experienced symptoms. Without an antibody test, we don't really know.

Nonetheless, there is another way to build a resistance to COVID that is almost as good as immunity, and that is to maintain a high level of general metabolic health. Because the case fatality rate in patients free of co-morbidities (such as Type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and metabolic syndrome) is very low, COVID does not present a health risk to patients in good metabolic health.

COVID impacts the aged, because the rate of metabolic co-morbidities is much higher in the elderly.

Building your immune and metabolic health is something almost anyone can do without major lifestyle changes. In this video, Morozko Forge CEO Thomas P Seager, PhD and Optimyze co-Founder Michael Roviello discuss the role of Vitamin D, sauna, and deliberate cold exposure in minimizing COVID risk factors.

Why is this important, if the COVID curve is already peaking and will soon be behind us? Because COVID isn't unique. Whether it's the Second Deadly Wave, or some other pandemic virus, the COVID experience demonstrates the necessity of taking personal responsibility for your own health. COVID proves that there is no guarantee that the health care resources will be available when you need them most.